Posts Tagged ‘investing’

RINO Environmental Remediation Repeat Play

July 13th, 2010

RINO International Corporation is in the business of environmental remediation, or to more simply put it they make technologies to clean up the environment.  If you have a green focus then this company might be a good bet.  RINO is based in China and caters to the Chinese market.  Their two main specialties include industrial water purification and industrial desulphurization focused on China’s steel industry.  One good thing about this industry can be taken from one of their SEC filings:

“Our business is driven more by policy, environmental regulations which are mandating steel manufacturers to install these systems – THEY DON’T HAVE A CHOICE AND THE FINES FOR NOT COMPLYING ARE INCREASING

While this sounds nice several ratings agencies have labeled RINO a SELL.  Before stepping in we need to look at what is going on.  We can start by looking at past history to see if there is a pattern we can use for guidance.  By bringing up the 1 yr chart we can look for support and resistance points.  Over the past month we can see support at the $12 and $11 levels (the lower yellow lines). Previously in August it bounced off $11 support.  Looking back to September 8 we can see that support at $12 held and there was a price bounce.  In late September there was a large price move and the stock moved up at a rapid pace.  Looking at today’s pattern we can see similar behavior and a bull triangle forming.

Bull Put Spread

Buy Aug 10 10.00 Put @.32
Sell Aug 10 11.00 Put @ .50
Credit (Mid): 0.18
Amount at Risk: 0.83
Potential Return: 0.18
Potential % Return: 21%
Break Even: 10.83

Or if you are feeling more aggressive you can go for a combo.  The disadvantage is if the stock drops below $11 by August expiration you agree to buy it for $11 by selling the Put option, no matter how low it goes.  But after looking at the charts it seems unlikely that the stock will break down through support at $12 and at $11.

Combo Risk Reversal
Buy Aug 10 14.00 Call @1.05
Sell Aug 10 11.00 Put @ .45
Debit : 0.65
Amount at Risk: 0.65
Delta: 0.55
Potential % Return: Theoretically Unlimited.  85% (for $1 move up in underlying)

Or for something plain and boring you could buy the stock today for about $14 and ride it up to the next resistance point of $15.

RINO’s services are going to be in strong demand in China.  Until we see where the economy is going, this is something to trade in and out of, or limit your exposure through the use of options.

February Fun With LDK Solar

February 16th, 2010

We’re revisiting an old favorite today, LDK Solar Co. Ltd (NYSE:LDK).  This is a Chinese Green Energy play that we like to throw on occasionally.  As much as we love green energy it isn’t something you can put your money into and forget it.  Last month the solar sector was among the bottom on Tickerspy.  This is one area where you need entry and exit strategies.

We’re seeing some positive technical signs:

  • Higher highs and higher lows have been happening for four days.
  • Person’s Proprietary System (PPS) is showing a buy
  • PPS shows a positive cross over after the buy signal
  • MACD Histogram progresses back to and above zero
  • Stochastics have crossed over into positive and have not gone negative
  • Stock did not break down below pivot point of $6.93

Our short term strategy was to do a covered call.  In simple terms you buy some stock and then sell a contract to sell the stock to someone else at a later date.  We managed to get in at $6.94 per share and sold a March 7.5 CALL for $.40.  We get paid $.40 per share for agreeing to sell the stock to someone else if it reaches $7.50 by March 19.  If the stock keeps going up we miss out because we will have to sell it at $7.50.

There’s a 63% chance that it will not get to $7.50 so we can put on another covered call next month if things go our way.

If it stays under $7.50 we get to keep the $.40 which reduces our risk to $6.54 per share.  We won’t lose any money unless the stock drops below $6.54.  There appears to be some resistance around $7.12, but if that breaks it should be a relatively smooth ride up to $7.50.  We have a Sell Stop in place at 6.74 which still nets us $.20 per share if the trade moves against us.

Without the covered call this trade might not be worth the risk.  Using covered calls can be a good strategy to reduce your risk if you know that you want out of a stock by a certain date or price.

Green Stocks Set To Recover

February 4th, 2010

Over the past few days Green Energy has taken a beating on the market.  There are some signs of a turnaround though it is not certain.  Using the PPS, MACD Histogram, and Slow Stochastic it appears a few stocks have started to turn around.

YGE Day Chart

YGE Day Chart

Yingli Green Energy is showing a positive crossover on the Stochastic,  the MACD is improving day after day,  and the PPS is also having a positive crossover.

OPTT Day Chart

OPTT Day Chart

Ocean Power Technologies is showing a positive crossover on the Stochastic,  the MACD is improving day after day,  and the PPS is leaning towards a positive crossover.

FSLR Day Chart

FSLR Day Chart

First Solar is is showing a positive crossover on the Stochastic. The MACD is improving day after day.  The PPS is also having a positive crossover and is signaling a buy indicator.

AONE Day Chart

AONE Day Chart

Battery Maker A123 Systems is showing a positive crossover on the Stochastic.  The MACD is improving day after day after a flat decline.  The PPS is almost having a positive crossover and the buy indicator has triggered.

Using Bear Call Spreads to Get Paid to Trade

December 22nd, 2009

One strategy for growing your portfolio is using Bear Call Spreads to get paid to trade.  We can look at a relatively low risk trade using a Bear Call Spread on the Russell 2000 Index.  The Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) is a small-cap stock market index of 2000 small companies.  In downtimes smaller companies will be harder hit and we can assume that the Russell 2000 Index will have a hard time climbing upward.  If we look at a chart of the Russell 2000 Index we see that has encountered resistance or in simple terms it has had a hard time going above 625.

We can make some money by selling the January 10 650 CALL.  This is an options contract that we sell to someone else.  These options contracts are going for $2.66/share.  So we could make $266 per contract sold.  We would get to keep this amount as long as the ^RUT stays below 650.  If it goes above 650 our losses could seriously add up.  To protect against this possibility we also purchase the January 660 CALL contract from someone for $1.26.  This brings our initial net profit down to $1.40/share or $140 per call spread.  This limits the maximum amount you could lose on making this trade.  The advantage is that the January 660 CALL is gaining in value along with the January 650 Call if ^RUT goes up. To get out of this trade if it does go bad you would do the opposite of how you entered.  That is you would sell the January 660 CALL you bought and take part of the proceeds to buy the January 650 CALL you sold.

Max Profit occurs when ^RUT below the price of the CALL you sold.  I this case as long as ^RUT is below 650 you get to keep 100% of the 1.40/share from making this trade.

Break Even occurs when the price of ^RUT is equal to the price of the call you sold (650) + the premium you received (1.40).  In this case you would break even if ^RUT made it to 651.40 and only lose money after it went higher.

Max loss would occur if ^RUT were higher than the CALL you bought (660).

If we were to go and buy 3 contracts (300 shares) using this setup we would see this calculation in our trading software.

Max Profit: $420.00

Max Loss: $2580.00

You collect the $420 immediately if you click send.  You only start to lose money if ^RUT makes it above 651.40.

Is this trade worth the risk?  We can calculate that to make our own decision before hitting send.

On Dec 21 we used the Analyze Risk tab in Think Desktop to see what the odds were of ^RUT being under 651.40 by the date the options contracts expire in January.  Based on this chart the odds were 100% likely that ^RUT not go above our break even point.

RUT 100% Chance of Success

We didn’t get filled so we tried again on Dec 22 and raised our price.  ^RUT went up 5 points in one day which was a big move and we performed another risk analysis.  Now there is 72% chance of ^RUT being under 651.40 by January 15.  The odds are greater than 50/50 and much better than winning the lottery.  We also set an email alert when ^RUT gets to 645.  This gives us an opportunity to bail out of this trade before expiration.

RUT 72% Chance of Success

Bear Call Spreads are useful for speculating on a security not rising above a given price.  In this case we didn’t have to have any money up front to invest and made a profit of $420.  With a more than 70% chance of success this was worth the risk since ^RUT is going to have a hard time breaking above 625.  We’ve set email alerts in case things continue to slide in the wrong direction over the next 23 days.  Never trade and forget because you could end up with an unpleasant surprise.

LDK Solar Cash Crisis

December 18th, 2009

We tried a play on LDK Solar last month.  We tried to go long by selling puts at $7.  That would have been a good strategy for about a month as this was not a buy and hold stock.  The guys over at Greenstocks Central reported yesterday that the CEO is trying to come up with a new strategy for funding.

the CEO stated in an SEC filing, “If we do not successfully execute our liquidity plan, we face the risk of not being able to continue as a going concern.”

LDK Solar has dropped from over $9 to under $7 in the past two days.  This is a perfect example of why managing your sell stops is important.  Looking back at the chart some well placed trailing stops would have exited the position on Nov 24.  There was also a strong jump up on Dec 4 where setting a stop at $8.50 would have saved some profits.  The slow stochastic is showing an uptick in the %K line, but this may continue to sell down. 

RTK Good but Not Good Enough

December 15th, 2009

Rentech, Inc (NYSE: RTK) announced revenue of $24.7 million compared to $74.6 million for the prior year.  This is a net income for the year of $3 million or $0.02/share.  Not too bad, but the street was not amused.  We entered a trade on this one at $1.54 at the end of November. Today we were stopped out at $1.59.

Rentech is a clean energy company that has been around for a very long time . They’re testing some interesting technology and seem to have a fairly repeatable process.  We’re still undecided about getting back in.  The debt-to-equity ratio is a little high but this still might be a good short term play with a tight sell stop.  There is support near 1.44 and 1.38 which might prove to be a good entry point in the future.  It’s also still above its 21 day SMA which is a good sign for now.

RTK

RTK

It isn’t easy funding Green

November 25th, 2009

Cleantech has been on a roll lately.  Venture capital in the sector is up 46% to $965 Million.  The US Department of Energy announced $3.4 Billion in grants for smart-grid programs.  There are also $2.4 Billion in grants for plug-in electric-vehicle battery manufacturing.  One would think that this is absolutely great for green.

Stock-Chart---AONE-2009-11-25

A123 Systems and Detroit Edison managed to land $5 Million for battery research.  There was quite a jump up in price from $14.97 all the way to $17.49 at its highest.

Stock-Chart---ESLR-2009-11-25

The Cleantech revolution has left some out in the cold.  Evergreen Solar recently got beat down prior to earnings and is going to shut down their manufacturing facilities in Massachusetts.  Guess where the new jobs will be located?  China.  Nevermind the fact that they received $58 million from the state taxpayers, and a portion of that was funded by the bail out–I mean Economic Stimulus Plan.

Green has a different ROI than IT.  Some are predicting 15-18 years to get a return, while IT is geared to provide a return in 5-7 years.  What we are seeing is a trend to invest in IT driven green initiatives such as the smart grid or to get into other green investments later in the life of the company.   Solar manufacturing is suffering right now because of an over supply with low demand.  If you’re starting a green energy company the safest place to find funding will be in software that contributes to the green economy.

Hot Topic is Not so Hot

November 19th, 2009

Hot Topic is on fire and not in a good way.  It’s burning like Timothy Geithner’s behind at a Congressional hearing.  Earnings are down 21%, margins are shrinking, and Marilyn Manson has not had a hit album in years.  Citi says to reduce your expectations and expect a target price of around $5, down from $7.   Analysts are saying that the women’s clothing line will under sell through 1Q10. Their Twilight line of products didn’t create enough buzz to satisfy the analysts.  That’s a very bad sign of things to come.

The stock plummeted from slightly below $7  all the way to $5.57 today.  We arrived late to the game today and SHORTED this one at $5.64 and our T-Stop executed at $5.60. HOTT went up to about $5.80 from there and did its usual flat line (how goth).  HOTT Feb 10 5 PUTs (UHONA) are at Ask $0.45 right now.  If you believe the analysts this could be a good play for a bad Christmas earnings season.  We’re going to stay away from HOTT until Q4 earnings and then SHORT them again.

Not a real big win today, but we had our shot at kicking the emo kid while he was down.

Hot Topic 2 day chart

Hot Topic 2 day chart

LDK Solar Up and Away

November 18th, 2009

LDK Solar had a nice bump up 20% today.  They have plans to sell a 15% ownership stake in its 15,000 metric ton (MT) annualized capacity polysilicon plant in Xinyu City.  China. Jiangxi International Trust and Investment Co., Ltd. has agreed to purchase this interest for approximately RMB1.5 billion (equivalent to approximately US$219 million).  The cash infusion was one factor that seemed to help their stock price for the day.  There were several entry opportunities for a day trade as this only kept going up today.  Instead of buying LONG I decided to sell several $7 PUT options hoping to enter on the lunch time pull back, but LDK kept going up.  Options expire in 2 days so this play wasn’t the best, but there’s no downside in it which is what we’re looking for.

LDK Solar 2009-11-18